- Originated by
- Les Kelley (Kelley Blue Book, 1926) systematized used-car resale pricing.
- First formalized
- 1926 — Kelley Blue Book; 1933 — NADA Official Used Car Guide.
- Origin
- Los Angeles, California.
How it came to be
Before Kelley's Blue Book, dealers haggled trade-ins from memory and the local newspaper classifieds. Standardised residual forecasting matured with the rise of automotive leasing in the 1960s — leases only make financial sense if you can reliably predict what a car will be worth in 36 months. Today ALG, Black Book and Manheim's MMR track every auction sale in North America and publish residuals that drive lease pricing across every brand. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index is now followed by Wall Street as a macroeconomic indicator.
Key milestones
- 1926Kelley Blue Book published in Los Angeles.
- 1933NADA Official Used Car Guide launches for US dealers.
- 1964Automotive Lease Guide (ALG) founded to forecast residuals.
- 1995Manheim launches the Manheim Market Report (MMR), the first real-time auction price feed.
- 2021Manheim Index hits an all-time high as used cars briefly appreciate during the chip shortage.
Why resale matters
A car that holds 60% of its value at five years is effectively half the cost of one that holds 35%. Two cars with the same $50,000 sticker can cost wildly different amounts to actually own.
Models with legendary resale
Toyota Tacoma, Tacoma TRD Pro, Land Cruiser, 4Runner, Jeep Wrangler Rubicon, Porsche 911 GT3, and Honda Civic Type R routinely sell used near new price. Some Toyota trucks have been spotted reselling above MSRP a year later.
Models with terrible resale
Most full-size luxury sedans (S-Class, 7 Series, A8) lose 60%+ in 5 years. Maserati Ghibli, Jaguar XF and most pre-Rivian luxury EVs lose 70%+ as warranties expire and tech ages. They're great used buys for someone else.
How options affect resale
Manual transmissions in sports cars (Porsche 911, BMW M3) command premiums. Sunroofs, heated seats and leather are expected — their absence hurts more than their presence helps. Loud paint and odd interior colors usually hurt resale; safe colors (white, silver, black, gray) help.
When to sell
Just before major depreciation cliffs: end of year one, before the 60k-mile maintenance interval, before the factory warranty expires (typically 50k miles), and before a redesigned model hits dealers. Selling private-party nets 10–20% more than trading in.